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We may only be eight rounds into the AFL season, but Dermott Brereton has declared the top seven spots on the ladder are already set.And the Hawthorn legend has expressed concerns for the eighth-placed Blues, who have dropped three of their last four games ahead of a crucial showdown with the Western Bulldogs this Saturday night. The loser could find themselves outside the top eight by the end of the round, and according to Brereton, Michael Voss’ team is more vulnerable.Watch every match of every round of the 2023 Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE on Kayo Sports. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >NEW FOX FOOTY PODCAST – Booing Bud, big Tribunal week and faders in troubleListen below or subscribe in Apple Podcasts or Spotify“I’m worried for Carlton at the moment. I reckon the seven above them are playing finals,” Brereton said of Carlton on Fox Footy’s AFL 360 Plus.“There’s only one more spot — eighth position is up for grabs … if you want to play finals, you’ve got to beat teams positioned anywhere from 6th through to the end of the ladder. “But especially you’ve got to beat teams sitting 6th-10th, because they’re in the same neighbourhood and looking for the same wins as you. “Any slip up could be your season … if they can’t beat 7th, this is what they (Carlton) are. They’re somewhere around 8-10. This determines what they will be this year.”Under Brereton’s bold prediction, foxfooty.com.au has ran through why the teams competing for that eighth spot can — and can’t — play finals, featuring key Champion Data stats supporting each.Brereton understands Clarko’s anger | 01:41CARLTONWhy they canDespite the heat that’s come on Michael Voss and co. this week, this was a Blues team widely tipped to play finals this year and even push for the top four given the immense talent on their list and overall potential. Boasting a star-studded midfield, two Coleman medallists in the same forward line — albeit a pairing that have struggled to fire together — and one of the game’s best defenders, there’s so much to like about Carlton’s personnel. Of course, they already sit in eighth position despite struggling to hit their stride, too. Key Champion Data stat – Ranked 2nd in AFL in contested possession differentialWhy they can’tIt’s as much of a mental game as anything for the Blues, who haven’t played finals since 2013. And each loss puts more pressure on the club to buck that trend. Last year’s fall from grace and defeats to strong sides this year has made it really hard to trust the Blues and have full faith in Voss’ game plan. We’ll learn plenty about them over the next month ahead of clashes against the Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Sydney and Melbourne. Key Champion Data stat – Ranked 13th in forward half interceptsESSENDONWhy they canAlthough the Bombers had a friendly fixture to start the season, they opened their campaign 4-1 —and had Collingwood on a knife’s edge on Anzac Day — including a big win over one of the flag favourites in Melbourne to look like one of the most improved teams in the competition under Brad Scott. There’s been a lot to like about the way the Bombers move the ball and their midfield is stacked with talent, plus a bottom four finish last year has given them a favourable schedule — rated the easiest by foxfooty.com.au over the pre-season featuring double-ups against Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast.Key Champion Data stat – Ranked 3rd in score per inside 50Cats being cautious with Danger’s return | 00:37Why they can’tThe Bombers have made slight improvements defensively, but it remains a problem area for the club. It ranks 14th in the competition in points against, 18th in defending ball movement and 17th in pressure — numbers that aren’t reflective of a finals caliber side. Essendon is also in the midst of a three-game losing streak ahead of a tough showdown with Brisbane at the Gabba where it appears likely to further slide down the ladder, while star forward Peter Wright remains sidelined until the back-end of the season. Key Champion Data stat – Ranked 14th in points againstADELAIDEWhy they canThe rebuilding Crows are a thing of the past, with Matthew Nicks’ side one of the most exciting and dangerous teams in the competition armed with weapons everywhere and capable of beating any side on its day. Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine provide a buzz that’s infectious throughout the rest of the team — and revs up the home fans at Adelaide Oval, where the Crows are going to be seriously hard to beat no matter the opposition. That means you can nearly pencil them in for another seven wins, and one or two more should see them qualify for the post-season.Key Champion Data stat – Ranked 1st in post-clearance contested possession differentialWhy they can’tAre they a genuine finals contender yet or still another year off? That’s the big question hanging over Adelaide despite it clearly having one of the brightest futures of any side. Nicks’ side has shown it’s clearly a tier above the mid-to-lower ranked teams, but Carlton remains the only current top eight side its beaten this year. While Rachele and Rankine have provided great bursts through the midfield, on-ball depth and the team’s overall inexperience remains a question mark.Key Champion Data stat – Ranked 16th in points against from clearancesAFL admit they were slow to act | 02:27SYDNEYWhy they canComing off a grand final appearance last year, most had the Swans locked into the top eight this season. And that looked likely prior to a recent slump where Sydney dropped its last three games. If John Longmire can get better output from his midfield and underperforming stars, the club can turn things around. It still has one of the most talented lists in the competition with a nice blend of youth and experience and winnable upcoming games against Fremantle (home), North Melbourne (away) and Carlton (home) ahead of the bye.Key Champion Data stat – ranked 5th in points from turnoversWhy they can’tThe theory that teams are scarred after grand final thrashings has certainly rang true for Sydney in the first eight rounds. Injuries — particularly in defence — have clearly played a role for the Swans’ woes, with Paddy McCartin’s career in jeopardy amid more concussion issues and brother Tom McCartin and Dane Rampe also battling ailments. It’s possible the young Swans were slightly ahead of their time last year, having not gotten enough improvement both from a team and individual perspective.Key Champion Data stat – Ranked 13th in points againstVan Rooyen’s two game ban overturned | 00:46FREMANTLEWhy they canOccupying a top four spot for the majority of last season, the Dockers have enough talent in their squad, a stout defence and invaluable finals experience. They’ve been moving in the right direction up until this year, so perhaps they just got off to a slow start? Freo has split its last four games 2-2 and looked better than it did over the first month of the year. Caleb Serong has elevated status as one of the game’s elite midfielders, Andy Brayshaw has shaken off a slow start and recruit Luke Jackson is coming off his best game yet.Key Champion Data stat – Ranked 6th in points from forward half chainsWhy they can’tThere’s genuine concerns whether their game plan stacks up, with Justin Longmuir’s side’s slow, methodical approach depriving it of scoring. It doesn’t help that the Dockers lack firepower in attack including Nat Fyfe missing a key chunk of the season through injury. Fremantle’s only wins this year have come against West Coast, Gold Coast and Hawthorn — two of which occupy the bottom two spots on the ladder.Key Champion Data stat – Ranked 14th in score per inside 50’Hawthorn Football Club, just shameful’ | 03:17GWSWhy they canAlthough in a mini rebuild of sorts, the Giants are still blessed with elite top-end talent that rivals most teams in the competition. Tom Green is evolving into a superstar before the eyes of the AFL world and is well supported by Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio. They’ve also shown they can mix it with some of the better sides in the competition and consistently play a competitive brand under new coach Adam Kingsley.Key Champion Data stat – Ranked 3rd in pressure appliedWhy they can’tHad you known…
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